PREDICTION OF STAGE-BASED HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS (HIV) AND ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME (AIDS) CASES IN SURABAYA FROM 2018 UNTIL 2022

Abstract

Introduction: The development of the presence of HIV and AIDS in the world is increasingly alarming. The number of cases is increasing every year in all regions of Indonesia. Surabaya is one of the cities in East Java which has the highest number of HIV and AIDS cases. Early detection of HIV and AIDS cases will affect the quality of life of people with HIV and AIDS. The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models of HIV and AIDS cases diagnosed at the stages of HIV and AIDS from 2018 until 2022. 

Materials and Methods: The present research was a quantitative descriptive study with time series analysis as the research approach. Secondary data was used. The variable was the number of cases at the stages of HIV and AIDS. 

Results: The results of this study confirmed that prediction of HIV and AIDS cases found over the next five years always experienced an increase. It increases every year, both at the stages of HIV and AIDS.  Based on the results of the prediction, there is a higher number of cases found at the stage of HIV. This indicated that early cases findings in Surabaya were quite good. 

Conclusion: The present research reveals the prediction of HIV and AIDS cases in Surabaya has increased over the next five years. They are more commonly found at the stage of HIV, but there are still many cases found at the stage of AIDS.